Lockdown is intended to flatten the curve. When the coronavirus spread in the community, the number of infected cases may skyrocket and outgrow the capacity of the healthcare facility and resources. It will lead to catastrophe. The mortality rate may go up tremendously. The lockdown helps to slow down the spread and limit the number of cases within the capacity in such circumstances.
The India government have been repeatedly reiterating that there is no community spread. It may not be true for all the states. Spiralling numbers in some states may be the sign of communal spread, however, if the source of each infection is known, it can be safely said that there is no community spread. In Kerala, except for a couple of cases, all the cases are either people who came from abroad and or their direct contacts. These people are said to be under quarantine and all the contacts of them have been traced and sent in quarantine too.
A lockdown is required where a communal spread is suspected. The cost of shutdown is huge and it is beyond imagination. It is not just about economy and money. But it is about the livelihood of the people. Daily wagers, small and medium business owners and its employees, even all the large companies may not survive without cutting down as a consequence of the shutdown.
The success of Kerala in handling Coronavirus spread is primarily because of quarantining all the people came from abroad, contact tracing and keeping the contacts also in quarantine, but not the lockdown. Why it is not because of lockdown? Because all the positive cases were the people who are already under quarantine or in isolation. Even if there was no lockdown, these people wouldn't have infected anyone else, if our system could ensure effective quarantine. Our system succeeded in containing the virus spread, credit also partly goes to the people who are well aware and cooperative with a few exceptions. It has helped to ensure that the virus does not reach the community at large.
If the virus has not reached the community at large, then this lockdown is wasteful and costly measures that may impact millions of people here in the coming days. The loss to the people at large may be irreparable and may devastate lakhs of families. If the government is reasonably sure that all of the suspected and potential people have been quarantined, then how can a community spread occur? In such circumstances, why such a blanket shutdown is required?
Instead of the blanket shutdown across the state, take measures to ensure that the people susceptible to have infected are under quarantine. Strengthen contract tracing and quarantining exercise and make sure it is strictly followed. Lockdown should be for those who are in direct or indirect contact with the infected people. Also, put those more vulnerable people under home quarantine which is termed as reverse quarantine. It is easy for the system and people to take care of them, which may come to a couple of lakhs, for their essential needs while under quarantine or lockdown instead of putting the entire population under lockdown and deploying every resource to ensure that the whole state is locked-down. It is easy to convince people who have been in contact somehow with the infected people to stay inside rather than the whole public.
It is wrong from the part of the central government to impose a nationwide lockdown. The central government should act in an advisory capacity and as a facilitator. The central government should help the state government in improving the capacity of the healthcare facilities and ensure the supply of essential materials. The central government can formulate the guidelines for the state governments. However, the situation in India is not the same in every state and in every district. There are state and local governments which handle well and some struggle too. The state government should be given more autonomy in deciding the lockdown measures and area. The central government forcefully intervene only where the state government seems to be failing.
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